Resources

Authors use official statewide voter file and mail-in ballot data from the 2018 midterm election in Georgia to test whether certain voters are more likely to cast a mail ballot that does not count. In their analysis, authors distinguish between ballots rejected for lateness and those rejected for a mistake on the return envelope, finding that newly registered, young, and minority voters have higher rejection rates compared with their counterparts.

These results suggest that making it easier to vote by mail—especially mailing every voter a ballot—generally does increase turnout, both before and during the 2020 election. By contrast, the same policies do not have robust partisan effects, and in many models, they tilt the results in a more Republican direction.

This report, issued by the Office of the State Auditor, summarizes a statistical analysis of ballots submitted in the Washington 2020 general elections, with an emphasis on understanding common reasons and predictors of ballot rejection. Its findings point to the county where a ballot was cast as being the most significant variable related to ballot rejection. The report concludes with recommendations for the state aimed at reducing ballot rejections.

In this paper, authors examine the effects of automatic voter registration (AVR) on both registration and turnout. They find that ind it does raise registration rates substantially, that the effect of AVR gradually builds the longer it is in place, and that the different types of AVR have significantly different effects on both registration and turnout.

Even before the 2020 election, this reseach finds that voter turnout across the states is consistently higher in every general election over the past decade in states with greater shares of overall ballots cast by mail. Drawing on turnout data from the 2012-2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) and the Cooperative Election Study (CES), authors find states with greater usage of mail voting experience higher overall voter turnout.

The research finds no evidence that voting by mail increases the risk of voter fraud overall. Between 2016 and 2019, RBM (VBM) states reported similar fraud rates to non-RBM (non-VBM) states. Moreover, it is estimated Washington would have reported 73 more cases of fraud between 2011 and 2019 had it not introduced its VBM law.

This book examines the dynamics behind shifts in voter registration rates across the states.

This paper provides a history of military voting by absentee ballot.

Philadelphia officials randomly sent 46,960 Philadelphia registrants postcards encouraging them to apply to vote by mail in the lead-up to the June 2020 primary election. While the intervention increased the likelihood a registrant cast a mail ballot by 0.4 percentage points —or 3%—many of these additional mail ballots counted only because a last-minute policy intervention allowed most mail ballots postmarked by Election Day to count.

This analysis shows that the implementation of vote by mail causes a significant decrease in voter confidence in Washington and Colorado. However, this decrease appears to be temporary, disappearing after only a single election cycle.

In this paper, authors use snapshots of voter registration files (VRF) over time and machine learning models to test the effectiveness of unsupervised anomaly detection methods in detecting VRF modifications. They find that statistical models comparing administrative districts within a short time span and non-negative matrix factorization are most effective for surfacing anomalous events for review.

Focusing on natural experiments in Texas and Indiana, this research finds that 65-year-olds turned out at nearly the same rate as 64-year-olds, despite the fact that only 65-year-olds could vote absentee without an excuse in these states. Being just old enough to vote no-excuse absentee did not substantially increase Democratic turnout relative to Republican turnout.