Resources

This report, issued by the Office of the State Auditor, summarizes a statistical analysis of ballots submitted in the Washington 2020 general elections, with an emphasis on understanding common reasons and predictors of ballot rejection. Its findings point to the county where a ballot was cast as being the most significant variable related to ballot rejection. The report concludes with recommendations for the state aimed at reducing ballot rejections.

This research focuses on how the timing of voter file snapshots affects the most commonly cited advantage of voter file data: accurate measures of who votes.

The research finds that counties that moved to send registered voters mail-in ballots ahead of Election Day experienced 2.6 percent higher turnout compared to counties that made no change, although lesser reforms may have hindered turnout. Additionally no evidence is found that making voting by mail easier conferred a partisan advantage.

This research uses difference-in-differences estimates that suggest that same day voter registration disproportionately increases turnout among individuals aged 18–24 (an effect between 3.1 and 7.3 percentage points).

This brief studies trends in mail ballot rejection rates in 2020 compared to previous years and how different factors, including sets of policies and policy changes, the political environment, and voter outreach, may have contributed to these changes in an extraordinary election year. Authors note potential areas of further study to better understand how voters casting their ballots by mail can ensure their votes are counted.

In researching how to ensure a statewide voter registration database’s accuracy and integrity, this analysis develops a Bayesian multivariate multilevel model to account for correlated patterns of change over time in multiple response variables, and label statewide anomalies using deviations from model predictions.

Using monthly data from the Colorado Department of Motor Vehicles from 2017 to 2021, the research studies a series of reforms to the voter registration process conducted by the DMV between 2018 and 2020. Prior to the reforms, a large majority of unregistered DMV patrons declined the opportunity to register when conducting a transaction. When voter registration became the clear default option for certain unregistered Colorado DMV patrons in 2020, very few of them subsequently opted out, which resulted in a sudden, large increase in the rate at which DMV patrons registered to vote.

Using surveys of registered voters conducted in April and May 2020 designed to assess the support for various electoral reforms, the research shows that the overall support for expanding VBM in April 2020 falls sharply after just six weeks because Republicans became less worried about catching COVID-19, and unconcerned Republicans became far more opposed to VBM. These differences not only persisted, but actually increased even further between May and Election Day according to a survey done using a different methodology in November 2020.

While the evidence is clear that 2020 voters shifted away from Election Day voting in favor of vote-by-mail and early voting, very is known about how health risk versus party polarization around risk assessment influenced how and when to vote. The research finds that age and party were large factors in vote mode decisions in 2020, but not in 2016 or 2018.

The results in this article suggest that while convenience measures are designed to improve registration and voting rates, they may not result in across-the-board increases that some policymakers and advocates hope for. Nevertheless, there may be some differential impacts of these innovations on registration and turnout, particularly for youth and minority voters.

Drawing on a large survey of validated Florida voters, including those who regularly vote by mail, the research finds that retrospective and prospective misreporting of vote method prior to the 2020 General Election was driven primarily by support for Trump. The president’s supporters who were most politically aware were most likely to disavow their own voting by mail and misreport their anticipated vote method in the November election.