There is increasing evidence that voters’ confidence in the outcome of elections, and more specifically, that their vote was counted accurately, is dominated by the whether the voter supported the winning or losing candidate in an election. Authors ask whether this winner (loser) effect is consistent over time and parties. Additionally, they test whether the strength of this effect on voter confidence varies across electoral level (i.e., confidence in a county, state, and nations vote counting).
Resources
Use our resource library to explore the latest research in the field of election science.
This article, written during the COVID-19 pandemic, discusses the overarching trend of poll worker shortages in U.S. elections. Authors identify potential strategies to address shortages, rooted in the practices of state and local election officials. While the pandemic serves as the backdrop for this article, its recommendations remain relevant to elections today.
This paper focuses on Orange County (CA), using a survey of voters that was implemented immediately after the November 2018 midterm elections. Results show that voters who cast mail ballots are less confident about their own votes being counted correctly than in-person voters
This explainer reviews public attitudes toward voting machines, ballot-marking devices, paper records, and related election technologies and describes how confidence depends not only on actual system security but also on whether voters understand the safeguards protecting registration, voting, and counting.
This paper, focusing on Colorado and Washington, finds that the implementation of vote by mail causes a significant decrease in voter confidence in both states. However, this decrease appears to be temporary, disappearing after only single election cycle.
The inaugural 2018 Local Election Official Survey solicited opinions about election administration, access, integrity, and reform. In this survey, election officials highlight concerns regarding resources, staffing, and coordination between state and local officials.
This post-election survey reports on how Americans cast ballots in 2018 and how confident they were that votes were counted accurately.
This paper examines whether correcting information can overcome misperceptions about election fraud. It finds that providing counter information is generally ineffective at remedying misperceptions and can, depending on the source, increase endorsements of misperceptions among Republicans.
This research focuses on whether voters’ confidence is shaped by the racial or ethnic representation of poll workers and election staff.
This paper finds that media coverage of voter fraud is associated with public beliefs about voter fraud. In states where fraud was more frequently featured in local media outlets, public concerns about voter fraud were heightened. In particular, the paper finds that press attention to voter fraud has a larger influence on Republicans than Democrats and Independents.
This paper finds that the "winner" effect mitigates the effects from strong pre-election cues from elites. It also shows the effect of pre-election attention to the rigging issue.
In this paper, authors explore the role of polling place inaccessibility in contributing to the voting gap among people with disabilities. Authors found that, in the 2012 elections, the turnout gap was reduced but not eliminated and that 30% of voters with disabilities experienced difficulties voting. These findings support the claim that difficulties voting depress voter turnout.