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Using surveys of registered voters conducted in April and May 2020 designed to assess the support for various electoral reforms, the research shows that the overall support for expanding VBM in April 2020 falls sharply after just six weeks because Republicans became less worried about catching COVID-19, and unconcerned Republicans became far more opposed to VBM. These differences not only persisted, but actually increased even further between May and Election Day according to a survey done using a different methodology in November 2020.

While the evidence is clear that 2020 voters shifted away from Election Day voting in favor of vote-by-mail and early voting, very is known about how health risk versus party polarization around risk assessment influenced how and when to vote. The research finds that age and party were large factors in vote mode decisions in 2020, but not in 2016 or 2018.

Drawing on a large survey of validated Florida voters, including those who regularly vote by mail, the research finds that retrospective and prospective misreporting of vote method prior to the 2020 General Election was driven primarily by support for Trump. The president’s supporters who were most politically aware were most likely to disavow their own voting by mail and misreport their anticipated vote method in the November election.

This research finds that voters with greater general political knowledge are more likely to vote early, and those with low political knowledge are more likely to wait until Election Day to cast their ballot.

The research finds that information about possible coronavirus exposures decreases comfort with voting in-person yet does not increase comfort with voting by mail.

These results suggest that making it easier to vote by mail—especially mailing every voter a ballot—generally does increase turnout, both before and during the 2020 election. By contrast, the same policies do not have robust partisan effects, and in many models, they tilt the results in a more Republican direction.

The research finds that counties that moved to send registered voters mail-in ballots ahead of Election Day experienced 2.6 percent higher turnout compared to counties that made no change, although lesser reforms may have hindered turnout. Additionally no evidence is found that making voting by mail easier conferred a partisan advantage.

Authors use official statewide voter file and mail-in ballot data from the 2018 midterm election in Georgia to test whether certain voters are more likely to cast a mail ballot that does not count. In their analysis, authors distinguish between ballots rejected for lateness and those rejected for a mistake on the return envelope, finding that newly registered, young, and minority voters have higher rejection rates compared with their counterparts.

All mail voting in Colorado had a positive overall turnout effect of approximately 8 percentage points—translating into an additional 900,000 ballots being cast between 2014 and 2018.

With Maine as a case study, the research shows that, in the past four general elections, over 10% of vote-by-mail ballots arrived at local elections offices either on Election Day itself or one day earlier. Moreover, of the vote-by-mail ballots most vulnerable to postal delivery disruptions, a greater share of them were cast by unaffiliated voters and Democrats than by Republicans.

Research finds adopting VBM increases turnout because it reduces the physical costs of voting for all voters and mitigates the information costs of voting conditional on the types of voters and salience of elections.